Wow. Thanks to my twitter followers (@shanehoopfer) for choosing this weeks topic of how to fix the Oilers. This will be an almost as impossible task as Peter Chiarelli has decimated this franchise.
Full disclosure. I am a Flames fan and covered the Flames for a long time and while it is funny for me to watch the tire fire that is the Oilers right now, I am going to attempt to come up with a legitimate game plan on how to fix their issues if I were asked to, and no it will not include anything to do with a gas can and matches. I am going to take this seriously and have spent the better part of the past week studying the problem and how they could fix it. Be warned there is no overnight fix that I can come up with today but any team that has Connor McDavid on it is at least going to have a shot at being in the mix for a wildcard spot every year he is healthy. So lets get s to it with my ideas of how to fix the problem.
1. Fire everyone related to the old guard. No more Lowe's, MacTavish's, Gretzky's (We may retain Keith but I'll get to that later) or Messier's. Leave that history in the past and of course honor and draw upon that legacy from what was done on the ice, but they have no business in the hockey op's department . This is going to be the hard part for Daryl Katz but he must take a hands off approach to repairing the damage done, and allow new voices to take over the hockey side of the Oilers.
2. Starting from the top down we are going to retain Bob Nicholson as President and CEO but he will only be responsible for the financial side of the franchise but he will have no voice when it comes to hockey decisions other than hiring the new General Manager with approval from Mr. Katz. If Nicholson doesn't agree with this structure then he is canned as well, and it will be time to hire a President under those terms to keep the ship afloat.
3. This will be the most drastic step but I feel it's necessary to move forward. The next GM of the Oilers will also be the head coach. Whether that is Ken Hitchcock or someone else this person needs a five year contract and the freedom to do whatever he deems necessary to right the ship because with the Oilers cap problems it will take likely three years to minimize the damage done by Chiarelli. The reason this person needs to also be the coach is to have full control to make changes as he sees fit without interference from above and make it clear to the players who is in charge of the club.
4. The greatest advantage the Oilers do have and will have for the foreseeable future is they can be a cap team and easily sustainable as such. The GM will need to have free reign on how he uses that cap space. Following that I would suggest that two assistant GM's be hired to help with the legwork on contracts and trades under the guidance of the GM so he can focus on coaching. If Keith Gretzky is someone the new head coach/GM is comfortable with then retain himas well but the other AGM must come from outside the organization with fresh eyes and a different background. This will cost Katz a little more money but in a salary cap world there is no limit on what you can spend on off ice personnel.
5. We are again going to open up the purse strings and hire the best amateur and pro scouting departments we can. This is going to be a requirement because over the next few years the Oilers will have to find as much talent from outside the organization as possible. That means scouring Europe, the NHL,the AHL, and beyond to try and find hidden gems that will work under our coach/GM's vision. Drafting 1st overall is pretty easy. Finding guys in the 5th through 7th rounds of the draft is a lot harder and you need as many eyes as possible to help that endeavor.
6. Finally we can get to the roster itself, and this will take a couple years just to start getting fixed. As of today the Oilers have no cap space to really speak of unless something stunning happens at the trade deadline. Even worse the only UFA contract that is coming off the books next year of any significance is Alex Petrovic and his capt hit is only $1.95M so between that contract and a couple league minimum deals coming off the books it looks like the Oilers will only have around $3-5M free assuming Sekera and Benning come back off IR, and assuming RFA's are signed. The real problem is the NMC/NTC's that Edmonton signed with Lucic, Sekera,, Larsson, and Russell, and Koskinen, of which only Larsson's deal could be moved in the 2019-20 season, so we are likely stuck with those players and we are really waiting until 2020-21 before the Oilers are really active in Free Agency. So we've addressed the front office mess which was the main priority, and it's clear we may not be able to make sweeping changes for a couple years with the on ice product so the main goal in 2019-20 will be to solidify what the core of the team will be in 2020-21 and beyond.
Obviously we are going to build around a top line of McDavid and Draisaitl. Despite his current struggles I think Jesse Puljujarvi should be starting with the franchise studs for two reasons. Either he will be helped along by McDavid and Draisaitl ideally rebuilding confidence or at worst should inflate his production numbers to a point where he could possibly be traded down the road. If he falters you likely have to put Lucic with the pair just to give your stars a 'bodyguard' to free up space for the two. It's far from ideal but we're stuck paying Lucic's $6M/yr so he may as well be put to use in some fashion.
The next part of our core is going to be Ryan Nugnet-Hopkins. You know you can get a honest effort out of him and you need another center who can play bigger minutes and provide secondary leadership. Ideally next year Kailer Yamamoto can end up playing on his right side with perhaps Jujhar Khaira riding shotgun with them while being a guy that can get you 30 points playing some bigger minutes while also adding some toughness. So other than McDavid, Draisaitl, and RNH everyone else up front is expendable and should be moved for draft currency if the opportunity arises planning for being more aggressive in 2021 in either stocking up picks for smaller trades or letting our new scouting staff earn their money.
Moving to the defense the only two players who I would build around are Oscar Klefbom and Darnell Nurse. Ideally Matt Benning will join that list, but as of right now he is by no means untouchable once he gets healthy. This is not a ideal situation and hopefully either through the draft or free agency the back end can be improved for the 2020-21 season. In net I don't think anything else needs to be said about the insane contract the Oilers gave Mikko Koskinen. His contract will likely keep us from moving for a bigger name goaltender but signing a veteran backup in 2019-20 for a shorter term deal might be ideal to help Koskinen along while we bide time and hope that either Stuart Skinner or Dylan Wells can develop in the minors into a NHL caliber goaltender by 2021 and be ready to be able to handle more duties moving into 2022 and beyond.
In conclusion and being quite frank, there is no easy fix coming for the Oilers anytime soon. However the goal for a new management team should be to do everything in their power to try and prepare for 2020-21 when some of the unmovable contracts become a little more moveable. During that transition period the Oilers should gain as much draft currency of their own not only to restock the cupboards a bit but to have trade assets by the time they can take on more salary. This process is going to be a mess and I don't envy the person(s) that will have to fix the mess left behind. But if the Oilers can do some reasonable asset management and avoid doing something insane like trading pieces of the core I outlined here then by 2020-21 The Oilers should be on track to start being a legitimate contender in the Pacific Division which should be the main goal.
Thanks for reading! As always you can follow me on twitter @ShaneHoopfer and have a good one!